If a betting pro changes his mind about a team too late or too early, he runs the risk of losing a lot of money. Just because a team loses twice in a row does not mean that it is actually worse than expected. Just because it beats a favorite twice doesn’t really make it better. A sports betting professional needs to recognize when a team is actually worse or better than its reputation. This must be backed up with facts. A pure gut feeling is not enough to win at TonyBet Ireland.
The Risks of Automated Odds Adjustments
A second mistake that bookmakers like to make is automating their odds adjustments. A good example of this is the transfer of 1X2 odds into handicap odds. Bookmakers tend not to make a distinction between the individual playing styles.
Here is an example: An odds of 1.6 in the 1X2 area is almost always the same as a 2.0 in the Asian handicap (-1.0). The style of play specified by a coach, for example, is completely disregarded in most cases. The bookmaker first calculates the 1X2 odds and an algorithm spits out the appropriate odds for the handicap.
Studying Coaching Styles for an Edge
However, a sports betting professional can specialize in studying individual coaches or clubs. For example, it can happen that teams tend to manage a 1:0, while others go straight for the 2:0. For teams with the former philosophy, betting against the Ahc -1.0 is very profitable, as a 2:0 is rather unlikely.
Over/Under Market Miscalculations
Another example is the overs and unders. These are calculated by the bookmakers based on past results. Goal statistics, chances and goals scored are the basis for calculating the respective odds. This is also more or less subject to an automated process based on the aforementioned statistics. Opponent-specific adjustments are often not considered sufficiently.
Coach Ambitions and Tactical Context
A sports betting professional should therefore always focus on what the ambitions are for a certain coach in a specific match.
Understanding and Exploiting Bookmaker Logic
The conclusion from these two aspects should be for aspiring sports bettors to always inform themselves about the basis on which the bookmaker issues its odds in order to then take advantage of these automatisms. However, it is also important not to make the same mistakes. Therefore, here is a list of aspects that sports betting professionals should not include in their considerations, as the bookmakers have already factored them in.
Misleading Indicators: What to Avoid
Absolute strength of a team. If the last results of both teams in the duel were not surprising, the bookmakers’ assessments are usually very accurate.
The following negative mindset should therefore be avoided:
“The bookmakers’ odds say it will be a 50:50 game. But according to my research, Team B is better, so I’m betting on Team B. The bookmaker is wrong.” If neither team has attracted any particular attention in the recent past, either positive or negative, this assessment is very likely wrong.
The Right Way to Think
The following way of thinking is correct:
“Team B has not lost since switching to a 4-2-3-1. Even against a clear favorite, they have fought their way to a 1-1 draw. The bookmakers have probably not yet fully reacted to this new style of play and strength. Team B is probably better than it was a few matchdays ago. The bookmakers’ ratings have not yet fully adjusted. So I’m betting on Team B.”
Series and Trends: Signal or Noise?
In addition to absolute strength, insignificant series should also be disregarded. The art of sports betting is to distinguish between clear series & trends and completely chaotic & random events. This is a difficult balancing act. If there is no clear reason behind a series, then it probably isn’t one. It is probably a pure coincidence and should therefore not be taken into account.
Star Player Absences Are Often Overrated
The loss of key players is overrated, especially for top teams. Firstly, the bookmakers do indeed react to these losses (unlike with other automated processes) and secondly, the performance of the other players usually improves so much that the loss can be absorbed. On the contrary, the odds are often so high that even a bet on the team without the top star offers value.
The English Week Factor
Tired legs are often a very specific issue. Bookmakers adjust their odds according to whether a team has had an English week or not, for example. Therefore, this should not be an argument for or against a bet. However, as these deductions in the betting odds are also automated, it is worth taking a look at the individual team. Some can cope with it more than others. Teams with a small squad in particular feel the double burden. Therefore, the odds increase after an English week is usually too low for such teams and a bet on the fresh opponent can be considered.